Detective Colin Sutton has drawn on his 30 years of policing to compile a list of the five most likely situations for his new book.
- 23:00, 21 APR 2017
- Updated23:03, 21 APR 2017
Colin Sutton has drawn on his 30 years of policing to compile the list.
He says: “Detectives like to put all the scenarios down in a flow chart system.
They then methodically go down each scenario and all the forks and branches that come off them.
“You go down the most likely scenario – the one likely to bring you success more quickly – and may come to a stage where you realise it’s the wrong scenario.
"Then you go back to the beginning and choose the next scenario.
“It’s like a game of snakes and ladders which carries on until you have exhausted all the options.”
The scenarios he came up with include one that she wandered out of apartment 5A by herself and had a fatal accident.
Another possibility is that a paedophile was watching the McCann family and deliberately targeted the youngster.
Here, Colin looks in detail at the five scenarios – and comes up with the most likely explanation for Madeleine’s disappearance.
1 The McCanns or the Tapas SevenI can understand why the Portuguese police asked questions about the McCanns and the Tapas Seven.
As uncomfortable as it is, the first place I would have started looking is their group.
Without any other information to go on, the most likely scenario when a three-year-old girl disappears into thin air is that someone close to her knows what happened.
However, the police do appear to have decided quite quickly that was the only line of investigation they were going to take.
By concentrating just on that scenario they may have missed tips or other lines that meant going down a completely different investigation route.
2 Targeted kidnap by a trafficking gangThis is the most likely scenario once those closely linked to Madeleine have been ruled out.
This was not the first night that Madeleine and the twins had been left alone. Crucially there was a routine.
If you were watching you would know there were three children in that apartment and the parents were in the tapas restaurant. It would make it easier for abductors to pull it off.
Not only that, but if the Tapas group’s timings are accurate, it gave the abductor a 30-minute slot where they knew they would not be disturbed. Given all the facts we know, it’s the most likely and credible scenario.
A trafficking ring is more likely than a lone paedophile or paedophile ring. Yes there are paedophiles, yes she is a little blonde girl.
But I think six and seven-year-old girls are much more at risk from paedophiles or child abuse rings.
Looking at the trafficking angle, unless the order was specifically for a young blonde girl, why her and not one of the twins?
Babies have less memories than a three-year-old. If Madeleine is alive she will probably remember she had another mother and father and used to live in another house.
No risks of that if you take a baby. More importantly, babies have far less physical identity. They have not developed as a three or four-year-old has.
If you were stealing on spec you would have taken one of the twins. Not both, just one. So it goes back to a specific order for a young blonde girl.
Has a young blonde girl died and their parents want to replace her? Or is there another reason for stealing to order? When you pick it all apart it’s the most likely scenario.
3 She wandered off and had a fatal accidentLooking at it objectively, incidents of children wandering off are much more common than a targeted or non-targeted abduction.
This is also the scenario that police appear to have initially thought the most likely.
However Cuddle Cat is a compelling fly in the ointment with this theory.
If Maddie was as attached to Cuddle Cat as we are led to believe, she would surely have taken it with her if she had wandered on her own out of the apartment.
4 Opportunist abducted herThis is less likely than other scenarios.
The chances of a predatory paedophile just happening across Madeleine and being able to abduct her without being detected are just so remote.
Sarah Payne, right, who was eight (when she was killed by Roy Whiting in 2000), and five-year-old April Jones (who was killed by Mark Bridger in Wales in 2012) are probably the only cases that match something like that.
That shows how rare they are. Then there is the age.
It is uncomfortable to discuss, but most paedophiles are not interested in pre-school-age children. It does happen, but it’s the thin end of the tape. I don’t know of any other opportunistic abduction of a girl so young.
5 Killed as part of a burglary gone wrongThis is extremely unlikely. If you have got a burglar who has gone into the apartment for material theft, the chances are once they find there are kids in there they will run a mile.
Not only are there kids there, but they will assume an adult is also present. Going from stealing laptops, passports, etc, to taking a young child is too big a leap.
You are looking at two different types of criminals, two different types of crimes. It’s the least likely of all the scenarios.
Burglars are commonly drug addicts. They usually want something small, like cameras, tablets or jewellery, which they can easily sell for cash or even swap directly for drugs.
Junkies don’t take three-year-old girls.
- Anyone with information about Madeleine McCann’s disappearance should call the Find Madeleine investigation line on: 0845 8384699 or email: email@example.com
Surprise Surprise - paving the way for closure, for the Operation Grange 'cop-out'. Elementary my dear Watson!
I sent him a direct message on twitter giving him the link to Peter's e-book and asked him if he had an opinion on the Maddie case and that was the reply he sent me. He spent many hours on the forum and the blog.
I didn't realise he meant going to the media "to take part in the discussions" and then come up with that load of crap.
I had high hopes that he joined CMOMM to help Maddie, but obviously he's got a living to earn.How many more ex Top Cops are going to tarnish their reputations by jumping on the McCann bandwagon?
I guess the clue was in his twitter bio all along - he's a crime commentator. https://twitter.com/colinsutton
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CSm-gcl2hc - talking about Corrie McKeague "It's increasingly difficult to disappear without leaving a footprint...the sad truth is that the longer this goes on then the less chance there is of him being found alive"
|What about the dogs and other forensic evidence, Colin?|
And a comment from CMOMM:
I'm very glad you posted that, @ Get'emGoncalo.
As a Mod, Admin informs us from time to time of things that we can't reveal on the forum.
So let me just add to what she has said by informing members and guests that Sutton joined here on 8 April and immediately logged on for a continuous period of 23 hours, 11 miutes and 53 seconds during which he spent the majority of the time reading PeterMc's e-book.
Thus this pathetic excuse for a 'detective' has absolutely no excuse for what he has written.
Clearly, the Daily Mirror editor commissioned him a few weeks ago to write a piece for him and no doubt the editor's instructions were something like: "Make sure it fully backs up the McCanns' story and Operation Grange - and make it as convincing as you can".
Rarely were the words used by 'Get'emGoncalo' "sold his soul" more appropriate. He will no doubt enjoy his ill-gotten gains, and dine out a few times on his 30 pieces of silver.
But his conscience will get to him. In his heart of hearts, he must know the strength and force of what PeterMac has written, and I predict that what he has written will become a continuing curse for him. His own soul and conscience will keep telling him that he has done wrong - and all for his tacky 30 pieces of silver.
Sutton's last visit to the forum was on Thursday. He has made no posts. He made a pretence of being geninely interested in the case. One more ex-detective willing to sell his soul.
Discussion on CMOMM: https://jillhavern.forumotion.net/t13934p125-daily-mirror-18-apr-2017-what-really-happened-the-night-madeleine-disappeared#364233