Tuesday

Dr Martin Roberts analyzes Maddie's 'abduction'


Dr Gerry McCann, still working in the NHS


"There's nothing to say she's not out there alive"

By Dr Martin Roberts
27 June 2009

Gerry McCann: "She's out there or she's not, and there's nothing to say that she's not out there alive. So it's simple. She's out there until proven otherwise."

The expectation appears to be that, in order to prove she's not 'out there' one must establish her alternative whereabouts. That this is extremely unlikely is reflected in Gerry McCann's confidence that the current situation is "indefinite".

Unfortunately for Gerry McCann, the situation isn't the straightforward dichotomy he supposes. There is an equally stark alternative reality, summed up as: 'Either an intruder entered 5A on the night of May 3rd, 2007, or Madeleine is dead.'

In embellishing his own 'straw man', Gerry McCann has himself unwittingly introduced a patchwork of possibilities. Two contingent factors are involved: 'whereabouts' and 'state of being'. Organizing these into a simple matrix presents four distinct conditions, one of which must define Madeleine's situation post May 3rd, 2007.


As there's 'nothing to say she's not out there alive' we can place a cross in the bottom left quadrant. (Both the syntax and the speaker's vocal inflection indicate that the phrase being negated in this statement is 'alive', not 'out there', an appropriate paraphrase being 'she's not alive out there'. This is easily confirmed by substituting alternative, less emotive phrases, e.g. 'she's not at home, asleep').

We can confidently place a cross in the upper right quadrant also, as this condition represents Madeleine safely with her parents, which is self-evidently not the case. That leaves two conditions, one of which must apply.

Gerry McCann has been hiding behind the obvious difficulty in 'proving the negative'. But it's really not necessary, because one can test the remaining positive condition independently by other means. Simply disproving it alone exposes the remaining condition to be true - body, or no body.

The original investigation found no evidence of a break-in. Could an abductor have just walked into the apartment? Consider the following statements:

"...that's exactly what I felt like, you know, a few minutes before our world was shattered and probably 3 or 4 minutes before Madeleine was taken."

"Part of the reason we ended up coming through the back was the noise coming through the front door."

Notice that they 'ended up' coming through the back, apparently. They did not decide to do so 'early on.' So when was this decision arrived at? It must have been after 9.05 p.m., because Gerry McCann used his own front door key on that occasion, according to his original statement to police. The intruder then had just 3 - 4 minutes to enter via the patio and leave with Madeleine via the window, opening the shutters in the process, while Gerry McCann and Jeremy Wilkins were standing outside (if the abductor didn't open them to get in, he must have opened them to get out. Not only did Gerry McCann and Jeremy Wilkins not hear this commotion but Matthew Oldfield did not report the shutters/window open following his visit to the apartment at 9.30).

Subsequent sightings of two different men (as described) moving in different directions, and at different times, counteract each other as candidates.

It did not happen. It could not have happened. And if no unauthorised person accessed the apartment, then Madeleine was not abducted from it.

Thus Madeleine McCann is dead, confirmed by the '100 days' statement, in which Gerry McCann refers to 'the belief that Madeleine was alive when she was taken'. What could possibly have happened for the child to have died within 3 minutes of having been witnessed asleep by her father?
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Source: mccannfiles
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Related: Gonçalo Amaral's book 'Maddie: L'Enquête Interdite' ('The Forbidden Investigation' is being translated into English) here