Monday

The ongoing evidence against the McCanns


EVIDENCE REVIEW


1. Cadaver dogs signalled at a number of places in the apartment and around the car (but re the latter, the only material found did not elicit the response). Blood dogs signalled in both the apartment and the car.

2. There was a 99.9% certain DNA match with Madeleine in the hire car - the Renault Scenic.
[This is my (and others') interpretation of press reports of the evidence file which refer to the match involving identification of 15 out of 19 DNA markers (the four outstanding being too degraded for analysis). However, this is a controversial area as the FSS issued a downbeat summary of the evidence. But that was couched in such general terms that it is difficult to see how it justifies the match being ignored. Clearly this matter cannot be fully resolved until we have access to the full evidence file.] Amaral, the leading police investigator at the time the FSS reached its conclusion, stated in interview with Hola (12.9.08) "the girl’s blood was found as well as in a car rented 23 days later".

Also [thanks to Cati] Apartment 5A: Eddie, the 'cadaver dog' and Keela, the 'blood dog' marked on the same local: behind the sofa (which according to the PJ was moved by the McCanns). The tiles were removed and sent to FSS. The blood found by keela was degraded and the lab was able to check only 5 markers. They ALL matched madeleine's DNA.

So all the forensic evidence is fully compatible with the parental involvement theory.

3. KMC refused to answer 48 questions put to her by PJ.

4. Among the questions asked of both GMC and KMC were questions enquiring as to whether they had considered relinquishing their parenting rights over Madeleine i.e. putting her up for guardianship by a relative, or for adoption. KMC refused to answer. GMC appears to have denied that was the case. Not clear what grounds the PJ had for asking this question.

5. MMC's bed appeared to be relatively undisturbed. Some accounts suggest there was no evidence of it having been slept in. Other accounts note the shape of a sleeping child. I wonder at the fact that the parents did not throw back the cover to look for signs of blood or a kidnap note.

6. From photographs it does appear that the window would be a difficult egress point. (However that is hardly of much relevance to the general credibility of an abduction scenario given there could be an accomplice.)

7. Kate and Gerry had a serious row on the night of 2nd May/morning of 3rd May. Kate slept in children's room. (Claims she slept in cot. But one poster suggests perhaps she slept with Maddy in her bed.)

8. Two doctors (one a close college friend of KMC) made a serious allegation about one of the Tapas 7 and GMC. The witness statement made early in May was not passed by UK Police to PJ for seven months, until Jan 08.

9. McCanns refused to return for reconstruction because they feared prosecution for negligence.

10. KMC threatened PJ with "government pressure" if they took her in for formal questioning.

11. Portugese Prosecutors produced an incredible "pro" summary of the evidence. They ruled out negligence charges on the basis that the McCanns had "suffered enough already". Interesting legal concept. Surely applies to all parents who lose their children as a result of negligence. [Do any Portugese commentators wish to add to this?]

12. Brian Kennedy approached Martin Smith key witness who had identified GMC carrying a child on 3rd May. Presumably he did so on behalf of the McCanns rather than himself (since he has not been accused of anything). [Personally I think witness statements dating from Sept 07 supposedly relating back to May 07 are worthless.]

Amaral wanted to have the Irishman return to Portugal for questioning re his later identification of the man carrying a child towards the beach on the night of Madeleine's disappearance. The PJ did include Martin Smith in the rogatory letters sent to the Home Office, but because of his domicile in the Republic of Ireland was not legally covered for re-questioning by the Leicestershire police.

13. There was some sort of large cold bag in the boot of the Scenic. Photos have appeared showing the bag. It appears to have some relevance to the DNA sampling but no confirmation on that yet.

14. Jane Tanner appears to have changed her evidence. Whereas on the Panorama programme (made with her co-operation and with respect to which she made no correction) Gerry McCann and Jes Wilkins were shown as standing on the other side of the road as she passed, her drawing of relative positions contained in the evidence file shows they were on the same side of the road. She must therefore have passed directly by them. However she has given no indication that she said hello to GMC - which if she did not is remarkable. JW denies seeing her. GMC has never said he saw her as far as we know [now confirmed in evidence].

Apparently JW now thinks he could have his back to the top of the road and so would not have seen "bundleman". Not really relevant in any case. But of course if he was talking to GMC one might expect GMC to be facing the other way in which case he too should have seen bundleman.

15. Frances Kennah, the Head of UK Central Authority,Home Office refused a request from PJ for details of GMC's ATM cards on the grounds that the request was disproportionate. (Homicide is clearly not considered a very important matter in the UK Central Authority.)

16. Catriona Baker, Maddy's personal nanny, stated that the McCanns did no searching for Madeleine on the night of 3rd/4th May. She also stated that Maddy became frightened and started crying when she was taken on a boat trip in PDL. Now appears that Maddy is confirmed by the nannies as being part of the boat trip party on morning of 3rd May. [Note: This is still a matter of some controversy. There appear as yet to be no details of Catriona Baker's witness statement. No Tapas 7 members claim to have seen Madeleine on 3rd May, except perhaps for David Payne, visiting early evening, though he does not mention her by name.]No confirmatory photos though. May be a lot more to add on the day's events. Only fingerprints found on the window frame in Maddeleine's bedroom (the one with the infamous so-called jemmied shutter) were Kate McCann's. No sign of any abductor entering or exiting via that window!

17. Cuddlecat photographed as being on Madeleine's bed. No sign of any high shelf, as originally described by Kate McCann. However, it is not known whether she claims to have taken it down from the "high shelf" and then put it back on the bed where it would normally be found.

18. PJ were concerned about the four photographs of Madeleine said to have been downloaded from a digital camera and printed by Gerry McCann on the night of her disappearance on a printer at the Ocean Club. PJ maintain that they could not have been rinted there in that format. However: [Thanks to Paulo Reis] The printer used for the pictures of Madeleine belonged to a British member of the staff of Ocean Club. She brought it from her room to the reception. The pictures were printed using a memory card given to her by Russel O'Brien, around midnight. PJ wanted to check the printer, but she said that her boyfriend took it with him,to France. Anyway, experts from the PJ Laboratory considered that it was almost impossible to get a specific "fingerprint" from the pictures produced by that kind of printer.

19. Metodo 3, once hired, concentrated its early efforts on Robert Murat in its search for Madeleine, but the PJ found their evidence "speculative and without basis."

20. Rachael Mampilly Oldfield was the person who contacted the BBC, at around 2 a.m. on the morning of May 4th, to report the disappearance of Madeleine. No mention of the Sky TV contact.

21. KMC is reported by a Tapas 7 friend as hitting the wall in frustration at Maddy's disappearance. It is stated this caused bruising. No explanation of how far this bruising spread.

22. [Thanks to Paulo Reis] Gerry's fury: When GNR arrived, Gerry McCann walked to them, kneeled down and put both his hands in the ground, in the same position as a Muslim praying, and shouted twice, with rage in his voice, saying something that the witnesses close to them could not understand. Note: Interesting observation - Freemason sign is to raise both hands in the air, palm forwards. Possibly consistent with this gesture? - which might otherwise be considered unusual for a professional person of his background. However, this is pure speculation.

23. Tanner and O'Brien left their 11 month old baby whom they knew to be ill (restless, unable to sleep) in the apartment with its sibling. They went off to enjoy themselves with friends.

24. Tanner claims to have known that GMC was on the way back from 5A when she "saw" him and Jeremy Wilkins talking together.

25. Not clear, but possible Tanner may have been claiming that she saw the abductor emerging from the alley (rear of the property).

26. Both Tanner and O'Brien were (by Tanner's admission to the Police) very close to the crime scene around the relevant time.

27. Tanner did not use a mobile phone to contact her partner when Oldfield informed her that O'B was staying at the apartment because their 11 month old baby was unwell. She hurried to finish her meal and then went to rejoin her partner, O'Brien at about 9.40.

28. Tanner's account to police about how she heard of Maddy's disappearance is at slight but significant variance from the Panorama account. In Panorama, she hears a commotion, opens the door and is then informed in a matter of fact way by FP that "Maddy's gone." In the interview statement, it appears she heard both KMC and FP screaming that Madeleine had been taken whilst still in the flat. An odd discrepancy, made odder by the fact that the Panorama account sounds singularly unconvincing.

29. [Thanks to Vanilla Biscuit] There were early reports that 2 of the Tapas men were tired on the evening of the 3rd because they had been out rowing that afternoon, but those reports had been whoosh-clunked and very few other posters seemed to remember them, but it is confirmed in Tanner's statement: 'At 2.45, after she had finished playing tennis, JT went back to her apartment where she stayed with her daughter Evie.Her husband and Matthew Oldfield had gone sailing.'

30. Kate McCann confirms that JT revealed her claimed sighting of the abductor on the night of 3rd/4th May and she was aware of it. There is no indication that this led to any particular focus for the search.

31. [Thanks to Swannie for this observation.]According to Payne's April 2008 statement in Leics (from Paulo Reis http://gazetadigitalmadeleinecase.blogs ...):-

"David knocked at the A5 apartment about 6:30pm. Kate had JUST FINISHED HAVING A BATH and David saw that the kids were already bathed and were in their pyjamas, playing around. It was Gerry who asked him to check on Kate and the kids, Payne told Police. According to Kate, David knocked at the door (the door facing the swimming pool). She just put a towel around her, went to the living room and they had a brief talk."

Yet according to Kate's statement taken on May 4th 2007:

"Yesterday, after the daily routine, Madeleine and the twins went to bed at around 7.30. They were in their respective beds. The interviewee and her husband stayed in their apartment to relax until 8.30pm. SHE TOOK A BATH did her make-up and drank a glass of New Zealand wine with her husband."

32. Video of Eddie and Keela (highly skilled at detecting cadaver/blood scents) at work has been released. Shows that the dogs' indications were very clear. On the basis that studies have shown accuracy in the 90-100% range (taking a 95% figure), the mathematical chances of them mis-identifying 7 locations [note - I think it was 7 separate locations - to be double checked] is 64 million to one. It appears there is no evidence of the dogs having mis-identified in any other case.

33. Amaral has indicated during a speech in Madrid that : "The PJ was forced to issue a press release [on 5th May 2007] announcing the abduction of Madeleine" . John Buck, the British Ambassador in Lisbon at the time of Madeleine McCann’s disappearance went to Portimão to demand that the PJ immediately announce to the media – especially the British media – that the disappearance of Madeleine was an abduction and that her parents, Kate and Gerry McCann were two innocent victims. According to sources close to the British Embassy in Lisbon, the Ambassador John Buck, previous to this intervention at the PJ in Faro and Portimão, has already discussed the affair with the Portuguese Minister for Foreign Affairs.

Clarrie nonsense shown to be rubbish:

1. Dutch sighting of Ms. Stam. Dutch Police did investigate and passed conclusions to PJ. Dutch Police ruled there was no possibility the girl in question was Madeleine. [Sure there will be more to follow on this - the fact that Dutch Police were certain about this, suggests perhaps the Dutch Police know something about Ms. Stam or her report that we don't. Can any Dutch posters help? Update: Disparaging posts about Ms. Stam have been left on a Dutch website by someone claiming to be a neighbour of hers. Not known if these are genuine.]

2. Two e fits - bloke staring at the Ocean resort - person traced. Barrington Gordon Norton.
Music teacher. Known in PDL. Nothing to link him with case.

3. Interpol confirm there is no credibility to the UK tip off of a Belgian paedo ring "ordering up" Maddy. Clarrie's attempt to imply this was ignored is shown to be a complete and utter pack of whatever.

4. Sky News' Greg Milam confirms that all CCTV "Maddy" images have been followed up by PJ and none have any credibility. While he reports this the CCTV still of a young girl that was used by UK press with the Miss Stam story was shown - suggesting that the coupling of that with the Stam story (on many websites and in newspapers) was indeed COMPLETELY BOGUS.

5. Even the McCanns are now reported as reluctant to commit to sightings. Hardly surprising given the history of such sightings.

6. Clarrie has in previous interviews claimed there was confusion about the timings and that this was understandable because all (or,later, many) of the Tapas 9 did not have watches or mobile phones with them. It is clear from the statements that NONE of those interviewed claim any great difficulty in determining the timing of their movements on the evening of 3rd May.

7. On the appearance of "The Truth About the Lie" Clarence Mitchell said that lawyers are studying Amaral's book as a "matter of urgency".

"Mr Amaral will face immediate and swift legal action if he in any way implies, either directly or indirectly, that Kate and Gerry were involved in the disappearance or harming of their daughter," he said.

Ongoing thread on The 3 Arguidos forum
Also: